I told y’all I was going to talk about this, and here we are.
So there’s a big question facing leftists, doomers and preppers these days, and that is “What fresh hell is coming?” This is one subject I don’t really have a lot of experience in, but then, nobody does. That being said, there are a lot of people with some academic expertise. They are known as historians (and economists, political scientists and a few others). So one of the most valuable lessons I learned during my decades as a prepper (yes, I would have a DIY fallout shelter if I could, but I can’t, so…) was that we can look to history to get an idea of the future.
So there’s a lot of complex thought in this subject, and I’m not going to get into the weeds of it, both because I don’t think I can do it justice, and because I’m a lazy fuck who doesn’t want to do the research I’d need to do for that. So what I’m going to focus on are those scenarios which are out there being discussed (except for the ridiculous ones like the zombie apocalypse), and I’m going to tell you how likely I think they are (with the caveat that my opinion is generally in line with what experts are predicting to the best of my knowledge), what I think they’ll look like, and the order in which they’ll happen. I’ll also give some advice on dealing with each one tactically, and end with some general prepper advice.
The Hierarchy
For starters, there’s a sort of hierarchy of scenarios. Moving up the hierarchy, things get worse and worse.
At the bottom is the Rule Of Law. That’s normal times, when the government does its job and stays out of people’s hair. This was the US throughout the 80’s, 90’s and 2000s, with things starting to edge up in the 2010s.
Above that is the Crisis Of Law, which is most likely where we’re living now. The government is cracking down on out-groups, there are widespread protests, and it’s an open question of whether or not the state will remain bound by its own laws. This is the period where that fundamental description of Conservatism is the most applicable to the government; “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
Fun fact, that was actually written by composer Frank Wilhoit, not the philosopher Francis Wilhoit, and Frank wrote it in 2018. That date explains a lot, because his word had been ringing true to a lot of us for a couple years before he wrote them.
The thing about a Crisis Of Law (note the capitalization, because I’ll be abbreviating these soon) scenario is that it’s defined by two, more or less valid viewpoints. One of those is that we exist in a state of Systemic Degradation, and the other is that we exist under the Rule of Law. Both of those are positions that different people can and will argue, and the thing is that neither is wrong. The rule of law (lowercase) will seem to still be in effect. At the same time, there will be numerous, well-documented efforts to undermine it. This is a sort of transitional period, but honestly, all of these are.
Above that is the Local Disruption. This is a period in which it is an open question of whether or not the government even is still in charge, but it’s confined to a particular locale. So like the 2024 flooding in western North Carolina, or the 2005 effects of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans. Things are bad here, but nothing is set in stone.
Above that is the Regional Disruption. This is pretty much the same thing as the Local Disruption, but worse, because it’s spread out over a wider area. In the worst parts of it, there is no question: the state is not running things. People are left to their own devices. On the outskirts, things get better, with most of the affected region experiencing conditions like the Local Disruption
Above that one is Systemic Degradation. This is a period in which the government is losing control. Stepping in to fill the void are various NGOs (Non Governmental Organizations). These may be mutual aid groups, charities, community groups, but the most powerful will be organized crime groups. If you need governmental services such as security or public facility maintenance, it will be these groups who will fill the void, usually at some cost. The government will likely still exist, but it will be a shell of its former self. This is the point at which there is no turning back. Everything below this can be recovered from, but at this point, it’s going to be a long, hard trek. This period may last for a decade or a century before things start improving, or it may degrade further.
The next, penultimate stage is the State Of War. This is worse than System Degradation, because this is a very similar state, only with organized groups of people actively trying to kill the people and/or each other. The level of organization of those armies can vary, but the result is invariably the same. Life is cheap, laws are essentially nonexistent. The strong rule and the weak die or serve. There will be no real wealthy class for these NGOs to serve, so they essentially won’t exist to any serious degree. Only the charitable ones will have any resources (with those resources flowing in from outside). There will be little to no public infrastructure, and even private structures and infrastructure will be limited and in a poor state of maintenance.
The final stage is Systemic Collapse. This is the Mad Max scenario. There are no governments left. There are relatively few NGOs filling the void, and each one only operates in a limited area. The benefits of modern living will be mostly absent here, with medicine and infrastructure either nonexistent or so far out of reach of the typical person that it might as well be. This state can last for centuries, with one caveat: Outside powers will tend to move in, take over and divvy up the spoils between themselves. Of course, that’s assuming any large powers still exist. If they did, they very likely would have taken over during the previous stage, which is always a precursor to this. Most likely, there are no external powers, or eat least not any with the ability to do more than hold their own. There is only one historical precedent for this; the Bronze Age collapse.
With those laid out, it’s time to discuss how things progress from one to the next. For starters, those two in the middle stand out, don’t they? So does the State Of War, doesn’t it? That’s because, while these are ranked in terms of severity, those three don’t necessarily stem from the others. This is why I didn’t simply steal the SHTF pyramid from Brass Facts (one of the best prepper Youtubers out there, though I think he’s a little too obsessed with tacticool shit). I think he missed a step, and he failed to account for the ways that even a ROL scenario can turn into a LD or RD one with a single event, like a hurricane, though I wouldn’t say that he didn’t touch on that, or that he was ignorant of it. I think it just didn’t fit his video.
So moving from a ROL to a COL scenario shouldn’t be too much of a mystery to anyone. We’ve just done that. We did that, from 2024-2026. But simply being in a COL scenario doesn’t mean that we’re heading for a LD or RD or even a SOW. As I said, there’s not necessarily a progression there. We may move directly into an SD scenario, or we may recover and return to the ROL point. Or, perhaps, we could bounce back and forth between recovery and worsening, and end up staying in a COL scenario. Or, we could progress to a SOW.
It’s important to note that there’s no clear delimiters between these states. There’s no way to state that one ended and the next began on a specific day, or with a specific event. This is another way in which the Disruption types and the State of War are different. Those can start on a specific day. They can end on a specific day. They can appear during any of the other states.
How To Be Tactical About Each One
So now the question is, what sorts of practical, tactical preparedness is warranted for each of these? Let’s go through them one by one.
Rule Of Law
Here is where you want to be, so tactical considerations are at a minimum here. I wouldn’t really recommend more than an EDC gun and a spare magazine or two. You may want to keep a truck/car gun at hand with a bit more firepower, but it’s not necessary. That’s really all there is to it. Armor is pretty unnecessary, and may even prove to be a problem here, so don’t bother. At best, keep some handy in case things get worse.
Crisis Of Law
This one is a bit more in-depth. The presence or absence of open-carry laws or so-called “constitutional carry” laws (which means you don’t need a permit to concealed carry) will be something you want to be aware of. Staying safe means carrying an EDC gun at all times. If open carry is an option, don’t be afraid to do so if you’re heading to a bad neighborhood, though I’d still keep it to a handgun. I would recommend a car gun. Armor still isn’t much of a consideration here, because the guns are still very much just-in-case things, but it’s less option than in the ROL. If you don’t own a gun or armor already, you’ll want to get on that. And get to training and practicing. You may need it.
Local Disruption/Regional Disruption
Here’s where things get interesting. Just like in the COL, I would strongly recommend carrying an EDC gun whenever feasible. Open carry is better for handguns, because that doesn’t send the same “I’m a cosplayer” message open carrying a rifle does, but it does show that you’re armed. I would recommend making sure your truck/car gun is at least an AR15, and that it’s well set up. Keep your armor in the car, just in case you need it. If you can’t afford two set of armor, bring it in the house with you at night and bring it back to your car in the mornings. Keep plenty of ammo at hand; enough to fight a battle in your car (that’s at least 240 rounds) and as much as you can afford at home. Wear concealable armor when you’re heading out of your house if you can. Wear armor openly if you’re heading anywhere sketchy. Open carry a rifle if you’re wearing your armor openly, too, otherwise you’re announcing to everyone that you’re important and defenseless, at least to similarly-equipped forces.
Systemic Degradation
Here’s where the tactiboo prepper shit starts to really come in handy. I wouldn’t recommend heading out of your house without wearing armor and open carrying a rifle. Having a rifle mount in your vehicle is a good idea, so you can keep it out of your hair while you’re driving yet still get at it when you need it. This is the time when thoughts like “should I up-armor my vehicle?” are no longer signs that you’re a tactiboo, but legit concerns. Keep enough ammo on your person to fight a battle, keep at least the same amount in your car, and keep as much as you can at home. Carry a backup weapon on you, with at least three mags. Keep a round in the chamber of your rifle and backup (keep the safety on your rifle on, but keep your backup unsafe, because if you need to go for that, you need it right fucking now). You aren’t very likely to find yourself swinging pipe or kicking doors, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
State Of War
Look, if this is happening, you need to get the fuck out of dodge. Unless you’re a combatant or a volunteer for an NGO trying to help the people stuck there, you’ve got no business being there. If you’re stuck there, it’s time to go full tactiboo. You will be doing hood rat shit in an effort to get out. If you’re with one of the warring groups, you need a full military kit. Get NODS, get thermals if you can. Monoculars with QD pic-rail mounts are the best, so you can use them with your optics. If your optics aren’t built for thermals, you can mount your thermals in front of them, so as to still use your reticle. Note that digital thermals aren’t always the best for this setup, but there are cheap digital thermals meant to be your primary optic (with 1-4X optical zoom), so you can run that with a backup RDS. Basically, this is what all the tactiboos are preparing for, even though it’s a very unlikely scenario. You’re much better off beating feet the fuck out of there than sticking around and trying to fight it out.
Systemic Collapse
The tactiboos often think they’re preparing for this, but they’re really not. Preparing for this means honing useful skills, hoarding knowledge and stocking up on things like food and medicine. This is the classic prepper scenario, right here. I could write a whole series on preparing for this, but to keep it simple, learning diverse skills reigns supreme for this scneario. Crafting stuff, like blacksmithing, woodworking, or mechanical engineering. Utility stuff like chemistry, medicine, and history. Knowledge of historic technology would probably be pretty damn valuable. For your guns, this is actually a much less severe state than a State Of War. Honestly, an AR15 and a chest rig should be enough. Armor is iffy: you might very well find a fight that needs it, but you’re definitely going to want to avoid the weight whenever you can. NODS are still useful, but honestly, thermals is more useful, and the digital shit really will work just fine, if you can’t get analog nods or thermals. This is going to be more “Old West” than you think, so self-defense and not offensive warfighting are the name of the game here. A rifle that can handle big threats and a handgun for smaller threats or tight quarters. Ammo is not likely to be a big concern, and if it is, you’re probably outnumbered badly enough that you’re gonna die, anyways. Without access to medicine or rescue, you’ll need to avoid fighting as much as possible, so light, fast and sneaky are the name of the game. 180 rounds of ammo on a chest rig is probably plenty to carry around. Obviously, having ammo accessible stashes will be awesome, but it will likely be difficult to build enough supply for that.
Where We Are And Where We’re Heading
In this final part, I’m gonna talk about what my prediction is. I’m gonna start by being specific, then giving a few less-likely predictions, in descending order of probability.
My Prediction
My prediction is that we’re going to ramp up over the next few years into the worst extremes of the COL scenario, and then the public is going to have had enough and will send the current regime a clear message that they’re no longer wanted, a message which the current regime knows will mean their own deaths if they ignore it.
Things are going to get worse, for sure. And then, there will be hope. Things won’t really get better, not for a long time. But we’ll feel like they will, because we will have won a victory over the enemies of democracy (I know, I sound like the announcer in Helldivers 2.) The monied elite will continue to control things, because they’ll recognize the times and adjust their tactics to account for a more progressive form of populism. There will be a lot of virtue signally coming from the corporate world again. Bigots will once again keep their bigotry under wraps.
The fact of the matter is, we don’t have the necessary conditions for things to really get all that much worse than they are right now. The people aren’t mad enough about what the government is doing, except in the places where they’re doing it the most. And the people aren’t primed to fight. We’re not watching our loved ones die. We’re not living in a society where even defending yourself with your fists is a necessity for most people. Things simply aren’t bad enough to get the people mad enough to start fighting back, which is the necessary precondition to things getting worse.
The Second-Most Likely Prediction, Or The One Most People Want Me To Make
Okay, so people don’t like hearing my first prediction. I get it. You want me to tell you that it’s time to get mad and start fixing shit, because you’re scared and you need that voice from someone like me to tell you that you’re right to be scared and it’s time to do something about it.
This one… I have to be honest. This one is much less likely than the last one. The last one is my prediction by quite a wide margin, based on my own understanding of history, political science and sociology. And I’ll be the first to admit that I’m no expert in those fields.
But to get to this, things need to go a very specific set of ways. First, ICE will need to keep expanding their operations. I don’t mean keep doing what they’re doing, I mean keep expanding their operations. They need to be terrorizing 10-20 communities as a time, the way they’ve been terrorizing 1-2 at a time so far. They need to expand their focus from undocumented immigrants and start targeting trans people. They need to be doing outright Nazi shit, to people, not in the performative way they’ve been doing things.
And, frankly, they need to be killing a lot more people. They need to create a segment of the country united by one thing: the feeling of having lost a loved one to an overreaching government who will never answer for their wrongdoings.
At that point, we have the conditions we need. At that point, the only necessary ingredient will be a spark. I have no idea what form that spark will take, but it will be an event that will start to change people’s minds. Not at first, but over weeks or months. Perhaps someone will die at the hands of an ICE agent. Or perhaps some horrifying practice of the government will come to light.
But, if that happens, then we will find ourselves traversing this scale into and through SD, to the edge of a SOW. I don’t believe a full-on civil war will be likely, but we will be in a state of System Degradation in which directed, partisan violence will be common. The historic parallel here will be The Troubles in Ireland. And much like The Troubles, this will not be over in a year or two.
However, I personally don’t think it will last 30-40 years. The reason for this is the reasons for the divide. In the US, the modern political divide surrounds bigotry. Which means that one side will be attacking people. Not partisans, people. Brown people, black people, gay people, trans people and anyone who supports them. But on the left, their focus will be on defending people and attacking right-wing partisans.
That creates a massive imbalance in public perception. And it’s the kind of imbalance that’s hard to undermine, no matter how good one is at PR. How will the right convince people that it was the left who killed 12 in a Planned Parenthood bombing? How will the right convince people an attack on a right-wing militia was an act of terrorism? They’ll try, to be sure. And some right-wing people will believe it. But most won’t.
Public sentiment is going to take a hard left, under those conditions. Broad support for the right will atrophy rapidly, while support for the left will rise. Government support for the right will not matter one bit. Indeed, it will only harm them, as mistrust in the government will be common across a broad swathe of political views.
This will last about 5-10 years and then, yes, as I have said before, the end will come in a socialist/leftist/progressive revolt, as the nation grows sick of right-wing violence and embraces a better way. And then things will improve. Nowhere near as much or as fast as people hope, but it will improve. Little by little, and that improvement will come slowly enough that people will grow used to it, and even jaded about it. And that will bring us back to an equilibrium state, in which the country is damaged by the past, improved by socialist policies, and ripe for new political divisions to form.
The Other Most Likely Scenario
I’m not sure if this one is more likely than the last one or not. I’m afraid it will be, because I actually like this one a lot less than the last one.
This prediction is essentially that the US is doomed as a nation. This is what happens if we fail to get the Republicans out of power by 2028, and Donald Trump ascends for a third term.
America will become a Managed Democracy. No, that link isn’t to anything Helldivers related. It’s a real term, though not the most common one (as can be seen by the name of the Wikipedia article it actually links to). In other words, it will be a democracy in name only.
The wealth divide will become absolute, with the only path out of poverty being fame and requiring one to ‘sell out‘ (betcha didn’t think there was a Wikipedia article on that, but it’s a real thing) to the powers that be in order to capitalize on one’s fame and turn it into fortune. The wealthy will live increasingly decadent and unproductive lives, while the rest will continue to labor under worsening conditions to create that wealth.
Wages will not just stagnate, but will shrink. Discretionary funds will no longer exist for the majority of citizens. Vacations will become a thing of the past. Luxuries will be reserved for the upper class. The laws will change to reflect this reality. You can guarantee that the 1st through the 10th amendments to the Constitution (which are collectively known as the ‘Bill of Rights’) will only apply to the wealthy, and only to the extent that those wealthy support the system.
People think that cyberpunk dystopia is why I really dislike this prediction, but it’s not. The reason I dislike this is because of what we know from history. Autocrats are incompetent. This is not up for debate. It is a fact that has shown true through every single autocracy to ever exist. The US under this system will continue to degrade in efficiency and increase in corruption until the government is no longer viable, at which point, another nation (or multiple nations) will step in and take over. And that’s the end of the USA. Will that improve things for US citizens? Not likely. The corruption and wealth divide will create opportunities. America will become a place where cheap labor can be had, where goods and services can be produced at little to no cost, and foreign corporations (and native US corps) will be keenly aware of this, and they will take advantage. It will be a century or more before the quality of life of the average US citizen (excluding the wealthy class) will return to anything like what we know now, and likely most of a century before other nations get involved, though it may be as soon as a decade or two.
Oh, and here’s the worst news of all. I lied above. I do, indeed, think this one is much more likely to happen than the second. Sorry, I just couldn’t bring myself to start with that.
The Least Likely Scenario
This is the one that won’t happen. I won’t even say that it’s unlikely to happen. My money is firmly on it never happening. And that’s because it’s a wish-fulfillment fantasy created by preppers and people who consume too much post-apocalyptic literature.
This is the one in which the US completely collapses into anarchy. This is the scenario in which the rule of law is gone and there is no structure to take its place. Communities are all distinct and separate entities who may engage in trade with each other, but each operate as a state in their own rights.
In order for this to happen, not only do things need to go extremely wrong, but no help must be forthcoming from outside. And that means things need to go extremely wrong on a global scale. This is going to require something like a nuclear winter, which in turn, requires a nuclear war. Yes, climate change is a catastrophe (rather, it’s multiple catastrophes, all wrapped in a distinctly man-made package, but most not taking a man-made form), but it’s not bad enough to get us to this point.
Don’t expect anything like Fallout. If you live in a nuclear wasteland, you’re already dying, and won’t make much of an impact. There won’t be any super mutants or feral ghouls, but that won’t be of any benefit to you, because you’ll be dead or wishing you were already dead as you die of radiation poisoning.
Temporary Scenarios
Now, some of those scenarios I mentioned stood out, right? Local Disruptions, Regional Disruptions and States of War.
All of these are somewhat likely, with war being the least likely. But hurricanes are coming. Floods are coming. It’s only a matter of time before Yellowstone erupts, and if we’re lucky, it won’t be in our lifetimes (it’s not likely to be, AFAIK).
But you should be prepared to deal with these. I know I’m focused on tactical matters, but I’m a prepper, too, so let me take this chance to offer some prepper advice.
Store some water at home. You can get cheap containers for long-term water storage off Amazon or many other sites. You should store enough to get you and your family through a month. That’s a gallon a day per person, with some slack in there for women and children (adult men generally need more water).
Do the same with food. 2,000 calories a day is a well-known figure, but it’s not really a good one. Plan for 3,000 calories a day per person. And not just calories. You need vitamins and minerals. But you can simplify things by keeping supplemental vitamins and minerals on hand.
Do the same with medicine. If you take medicines, try to build up a month’s reserve. Also keep first aid supplies. I recommend keeping at least 2 IFAKs (Individual First Aid Kit) per person, plus at least 1 standard, camping style first aid kit per person. The IFAK is for combat injuries. It should cover burns, gunshot wounds, broken bones and similar injuries that can be expected in combat. The first-aid kits should be camping-style, because these will include the typical boo-boo treatment like bandaids, antibiotic cream and the like, as well as treatment for common camping injuries, like accidental poisonings, envenomations, sprained joints and broken bones.
Also keep a bug-out bag. These should contain a few simple survival tools, like a lighter, sleeping bag and other light camping supplies. They should also contain a small amount of personal food, like a field-stripped MRE and some water.
On that note, I have a message for Charlotte. You keep referring to field-stripping an MRE as rat-fucking it, but you’re wrong. A rat-fucked MRE is one that has had all the good shit stripped out. So it’s got an unappetizing entree, no morale item, no snack item, etc. Field stripped MREs generally have those things.
Anyways, back to the BOB. You should also keep a copy of all your legal documents in it. Birth certificate, titles to your property, etc. Keep some good maps in there, as well. Cash is great to have, because if you’re relying on a BOB, money still has value and things aren’t that bad. Also keep your personal medicine plus first-aid supplies, including an IFAK. There’s a few other things to keep in them. I’ll post a list I made a while back in the future.
And that’s it. That’s my predictions, along with some bonus advice on general prepping. Hope that helps some of y’all out.